Structural Integrity Management, Risk Management, Minimal cut set Method, Monte Carlo Simulation, Reliability
Structural Integrity Management, Risk Management, Minimal cut set Method, Monte Carlo Simulation, Reliability
Pipeline networks are key infrastructures for the transport and distribution of important primary energy sources. Such industrial utilities are exposed to high risk potential, with consequences for their own operations and the populations in their surroundings, both in economic and social and environmental aspects. Several methodologies for assessing these risks have been proposed over the years, most of them supported by qualitative data analyses and focused on the dimension of consequence of risk variables. In the present work, a quantitative model is proposed to evaluate the probability of failures in duct networks from the observation of damage mechanisms, using the Failure Tree Analysis methodology to determine the probability of overall system failure. To understand its use and validation of the model, a scenario analysis was performed and, through computer simulation, it was tested in the evaluation of the behavior of the system in the long term. Important measures were used to determine the damage mechanisms and the most critical basic events for duct networks by addressing the theory of minimal cut sets. The API RP 580 and API RP 581 standards were used to verify whether the model outputs were also verified in relation to the dimension of consequence for the risks identified in the analysis. In comparison with the results of other studies in the literature and with the international databases of failures in duct systems, the model was able to generate convergent responses with those effectively verified during the operation of duct networks.